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stephen moore

Is This What Winning A Tax War Looks Like?

President Trump says he's "A tariff man" which is to say "a tax man" which is to say he is saying we're going to tax our way to prosperity which is to say he's wrong. Is this what winning the tax war looks like? Why is Trump walking away from his 90-day China trade truce? Is this just another example of Trump's negotiation tactics? Why are steel and aluminum companies' share prices down if Trump's tariffs are helping them? Dan and Amy are joined by Stephen Moore Wall Street Journal Columnist; Chief Economist for CNN & President Trump advisor.

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Illinois Gets An 'F' For Business Friendly Environment

Is Trump capable of kissing and making up with GOP Senators to get tax reform passed? Will Trump’s tax plan force Springfield to cut taxes? If unions in Illinois are so great, why do they want to punish people who don’t want to join? Wall Street Journal Columnist, Senior Economist for CNN and former Donald Trump adviser, Stephen Moore joins Dan and Amy to discuss.

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Dan: Good morning. Dan and Amy uh Trump uh did a sit down with Lou Dobbs yesterday and uh Amy: You mean the the biggest suck up interview I’ve ever seen in 10 years D: Uh it was it was friendly. A: Oh yeah, it was real friendly “You’re the best, no you’re the best, no you’re the best.” Lou Dobbs Clip: I’ve got to ask you, you’re one of the most uh uh I would say by the left in particular reviled, even hated uh men to ever hold your post. Donald Trump Clip: I would say- Lou Dobbs Clip: “You’re also one of the most loved and respected. Donald Trump Clip: I would say that also. Lou Dobbs Clip: In history. And how does that feel? How- Where is Donald Trump? Today’s uh viewer just now beginning your presidency. Donald Trump Clip: So the one thing that I really thought - cuz I thought I was treated very unfairly by the press during the campaign- Lou Dobbs Clip: Right. Donald Trump Clip: And when I won, I said “the good news is now they’ll start treating me well,” but they got much worse. Lou Dobbs Clip: Right. Donald Trump Clip: Lou, they put on stories on CNN on on NBC and CBS and ABC and NBC being an offshoot also with the MSNBC which is ridiculous. They put out stories that are so false. They have so called sources that in my opinion don’t exist. You know, they’ll say “sources have said” they don’t know. They’re sitting down, they just make it up. It is so dishonest, it is so fake, and you know I have came up with some pretty good names for people that-. I think one of the best names- you know I have really started this whole “fake news” thing. Now they’ve turned it around and then now they’re calling stories put out by dif- by Facebook fake and they’re fake! What could be more fake than CBS and NBC and ABC and CNN? D: I dunn- alright. Why don’t we put that question I thought was rhetorical in nature to our friend, Steve Moore, Heritage Foundation economist, CNN senior economist. CNN just mentioned there by the president. Steve Moore, what do you think about your employer being mentioned by the president? Steve Moore: Hi guys, good morning. Uh by the way I know a lot about what it’s like to be reviled D: Yes! S: My ex wife- (unintelligible over laughter) Look, I think there’s a lot of truth to this. I mean it-it is, he’s an extremely polarizing president. Uh people, ya know I walk down the street when I’m in towns all over people will come up and “Trump is doing awesome!” but then other people just truly think you know that there’s a serious campaign by the left to try to get Trump impeached because he’s mentally unstable. . D: Well and this week- S: I-I would make the case by the way that the people who think that Trump should be replaced for being mentally unstable are mentally unstable D: Right. And-and this week that effort was joined by uh two republican senators, Bob Corker and Jeff Flake, both lame ducks. You- we all know what they said and it’s been discussed, and they’re entitled to their views, uh where do you think they come down though on the all-important and uh thinly margined senate caucus when it comes to moving tax reform to the president’s dex- desk? S: Well uh by the way, let me say one thing loud and clear to your audience cuz this is just the topic du jour, the topic of the week,uh and so before anyone asks, we’re not going to take your 401K plan away from you. A: Yes. S: Okay A: Sure D: That was next, yes S:That’s all the left has been talking about “oh Donald Trump is going to take away your 401K! Ah he’s going to take money and stock” there was some talk about maybe turning it back a little about how much money you could put into the account maybe, but I very much doubt that. But I guarantee you 90% of your 401Ks are not going to be taken away from you. Uh look, if 55 million people have these accounts, obviously they’re pretty popular with people. Um so your question was about the senators, uh Icount, let’s say three senators who hate Trump’s guts right who are republicans; John McCain Bob Corker, and Jeff Flake, and you know that’s bad news because guess what? Because he needs one of those three if we’re going to get tax reform passed cuz none of the democrats are gonna write 50 votes that he’s gonna need, so you know he’s got to repair relationships with with them um because he needs them if for no other reason than they’re still gonna be around for another A: Term- S: You know year or so and um. Now the good news is, they all voted for the budget um that enabled the tax cut last ya- you know last week so I think they’re gonna be on board, but it doesn’t make it easy when these senators you know talk about reviling Trump, I think those three do and I think the reason is th- Tru- Trump lost the healthcare vote was personal animosity between John McCain and and Trump. A: Well why can’t they all kiss and make up? I mean can you make that happen? Have a big kumbaya moment cuz I mean really- S: You know- A: You don’t want them to block his political agenda. S: Of course not not! Well uh you know, maybe he can get them out on the golf course. A: Well- S: You know it’s it’s it’s you know that whenever, you know whenever he has problems with uh Rand Paul, he takes him out to play golf and and they do kiss and makeup. Look, you know I think it’s harder to ah ah I am a big fan of Donald Trump, I work for him, you know I think what he’s doing for the economy is magnificent, but he has an incredible character defect that number one he refuses to admit when he’s wrong and number two, Trump actually seems incapable of kiss and making up. You know I don’t know if it’s just a New York thing but when somebody slugs at him, he slugs back. He-he just, it’s impossible for him to you know and uh you know that made up story about you know how he was with uh with uh you you know the the woman with uh uh husband and uh that that died in uh in uh Niger D: Yeah Sgt. Johnson, yeah right- S:Horrible story. I mean uh I mean look I uh I thought that uh- my only point is, you don’t you don’t get in a fight with someone like that, right? I mean you just say “I’m sorry if you misinterpreted what I said, I’m so, you know, s-sorry for you loss” this isn’t that, but you know sometimes Trump is just incapable of that and it’s just turn off for awhile you know people a lot of people say “I like Trump’s policies, I like a lot of things he’s saying, but his personality is just so grating on me, and, you know, if he wants to get reelected, he better work on that.” D: Yeah, it’s a fair point. Now uh with respect to what uh will be included in in the final form coming out of the House of the tax reform plan S: Yeah D: Uhh this is obviously important to a hi-tech state like Illinois at the state and local level uh the uh state and local tax deductions, do you think they’re going to be in or out? S: Um I think it’s gonna be in. And I think it will affect ah-what uh I’ve advising them, it’s just going to affect people who make over say $500,000 a year, so no middle class person will be affected, but the uh- it is important! There’s people within the state of Illinois, I used to live in the state of Illinois. Illinois is now on of the top two or three tech states in the country, so you would be affected by this. But I-I see it as a two-for-one. If we get this tax cut done and we eliminate the state and local tax deduction, number one you get a federal tax cut, number two is going to force Springfield to start cutting your taxes because if you continue to fight *indecipherable over forced laughter. But that’s uh that’s a laugh for the day, right? No, okay but look if they’ don't cut taxes” in uh Illinois we uh go to the state level elections, there’s only one thing left for people to do, and that’s- for those who are still there- to move out of Illinois because right now, the only reason that Springfield can even semi get away with these massive tax increases all the time is 40% of it is paid for by people in other states because you get to write off of 40% of it so uh yeah I want to get rid of the state and local tax deduction, it’s my least uh favorite provision in the tax code, so I think it’s unfair for people who live in low tax state tax states like me to pay more taxes to pay for people in high tax states, like you guys in Illinois! D: Where’s Amazon HQ2 gonna go? A: I was just gonna ask that. S: Sorry? D: Where-where’s Amazon HQ2 gonna go? Dallas? Atlanta? Where’s it gonna go? A: Chicago! D: We want a prog prognostication from S: Come to Chicago baby right next to Wrigley Field! A: No actually there’s Michael Reese Hospital that place that’s empty and that’s on Lake Michigan. I mean it would be an absolute gorgeous place. But the the you know the business economy, the environment is just not good. D: Yes it’s just- S: Yeah. Look and I’ve said this so many times on your, Chicago is a world class city, it’s one of the greatest cities in the world, I think the top ten, and it has so much to work for it other than the taxes and that you’ve got too much crime. I mean other than those two things, I mean ca-can you imagine if you put someone in charge of uh the state of Illinois and the city of Chicago who who you know moved you know away from the high taxes, who was gotten serious about improving the schools, and uh and uh getting some crime off the street I mean Chicago would be like (unheard) for goodness sakes. It’s uh it’s all of your wounds are self inflicted. D: Absolutely. S: There’s no question. D: Absolutely. He- there’s an interesting, there’s an interesting study by Thumbtack, business friendliness study. Thumbtack, a San Francisco based company that specializes in matching customers with professionals, they uh surveyed 13,000 small business owners that work as electricians, music teachers, wedding planners wellness professionals across the spectrum uh and they uh graded states by a number of metric: ease of starting a business, regulations, tax code, licensing. Uh for uh Illinois, licensing F, tax code, F, environmental factors, F, regulations, F, ease of starting a business, C- S: Oh. D: Overall business friendliness, F. Uh so that’s who where you’re hearing, you’re hearing from these small business owner entrepreneur, so it’s not just the big companies and trying to land like land the Amazon HQ2, it’s those it’s those startups. S: Well let me give you an example of what you’re talking about, and this is just one of those things I just thought it was so crazy, so my my brother uh who still lives in the Chicago area, many years ago started a moving company trying to move people from their apartments and so on. You know what’s easier than starting a moving company, right? Did you know in Chicago, you have to get a license to do that? A: Right. S: And what happens is you have to go to the Chi- what I think was the Chicago Commerce Commission or something like that and you have to actually, you have to prove to these commerc- the people on this commission that there’s a demand for your service, so what happens is all the other moving companies they’re gonna say “no no, we’ve already got that covered. We uh we don’t need that company here.” It’s like McDonald’s saying “no, no, we don’t need that Burger King.” D: “We’re good!” A: And Steve, I don’t know if you know, but it’s now a crime in Chicago if you refuse to join a union, it’s a misdemeanor. D: Well it no, no it’s not- no, not yet. S: I saw up to one year if it’s not it’s up to potentially one year in prison? I mean it’s gonna be a higher higher crime then rate. D: Yeah they uh failed to override the government’s veto in the house yesterday, so it’s not Illinois law. A: Okay. D: But the fact that it came as close as it did, and they’re gonna go back at it next week probably. Says something about Illinois, yes, criminalizing local officials who vote for right to work zones. S: Well uh the the unions are so good for workers that they have to have to threaten to put people in jail who don’t join the union. A: Ultimate thuggery D: Uh this uh that about sums it. Alright, Steve Moore, Heritage Foundation Senior Economist, CNN Economist, Wall Street Journal Economist. Steve, thanks for joining us as always. Appreciate it. S: I’m just so glad I know two people in Chicago, Dan and Amy who don’t revile me. D: Yes, exactly. We’re starting a movement. S: Take care, bye.

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Dan Proft: Good morning Dan and Amy, Trump was in Phoenix yesterday preaching to the faithful, talked a little bit of economics, amid a number of other topics he tackled, restated what he considers one of his accomplishments, which is the creation of 1 million new jobs as of last evening, and the question though is, minutia staying on and trying to right the ship after a rocky week at sea last week, are we going to see policy, the signature cornerstone policy accomplishments that make way for real growth, not just at the macro level, but in terms of real wage growth too, in addition to the couple percentage point we’ve seen today and a real turn around for this country and for middle income families, for more of the answer to that question, we’re pleased to be joined again by Heritage Foundation economist, Wall Street Journal columnist, Senior Economist for CNN, Steve Moore, Steve thanks for being with us again, appreciate it. Stephen Moore: Hi Dan, good morning. Dan: Morning, so we getting tax reform or what? Stephen: Say again. Dan: Are we getting tax reform or what? Amy Jacobson: Yeah, answer the question. Don’t stall. Stephen: That’s a tough one my friend, look I do think that we will get a tax reform bill, but boy there sure doing it the hard way and this is a very tough time for the Republicans they just don’t seem to have their act together, let me step back a minute, the economy right now, this is something that because of the story about Charlottesville and Bannon and Comey and Russia and all the other things that are going on, nobody is talking about what’s happening with the economy, so I’m going to tell you what happening with the economy, it is absolutely booming, we haven’t see anything like this since the late 1990s, so you know that every week or so the Atlanta Federal Reserve bank estimates what’s the GDP growth rate will be based on the weekly data that comes in, you want to take a wild guess at what there latest forecast is for the third quarter growth rate for the Western economy? Now we’re about 7 weeks in to the third quarter so we’re a little bit over half way through the third quarter, guess what there estimate right now is for the third quarter. Dan: Amy’s the one… Amy: No, no, no. Dan: Amy’s the one here who makes the guesses about GDP growth, she’s our GDP growth projector. Amy; Well… Stephen: Take a guess, Amy before you… Amy: 6.7%. Stephen: What she say? Dan: Come on. Stephen: Hold on just one second, before you guess this Amy, I’ll give you a couple of numbers so you can make an assessment here… Dan: We lost Steve Moore, okay, we’re going to have Steve Moore back, we had a little technical difficulty, I think I accidentally hung up on him actually, that was the technical difficulty. Amy: Did you? Oh, so it was your fault. Dan: Yeah, it happens, here’s the thing I wanted to get to Steve Moore, he’ll be right back. Amy: He will be. Dan: After you make your prediction, 6.7%, this is like price is right, you cannot over bid, you don’t win the showcase showdown if you’re over, so ratchet it down a little bit. Amy: 2.6%. Dan: Be optimistic. Amy: Well that’s optimistic. Dan: Don’t get over 3. Amy: I said 2.6! Dan: Alright, I’m just saying, I’m glad we can confer before Steve Moore, Steve Moore is back. Amy: I’ve got my answer for him. Steve, I have my answer. Dan: Don’t tell him we talked, Steve sorry about that. Amy: I have my answer for you. Stephen: Go. Amy: 2.6%. Stephen: You are wrong! Dan do you want to take a stab at this? Dan: And if I get within 1 tenth of a point, do I win both showcase showdown? Amy: you get what’s behind… Dan: 3.1%. Stephen: 3.8%. Amy: You said? Ohhhhhh… Stephen: 3.8%, that’s an amazing number, that… can you imagine if Barack Obama had been quoted 3.8% growth, he’d have done cart wheels down Pennsylvania Avenue, 3.8%, a lot of these economists, these liberal economists are saying, Trump can’t get 3% how in the world is he, he’s high in the sky, he’s making up the numbers, 3% is impossible, going on and on and on about this, he’s at 3.8% so far, now look this is only based on 7 weeks, but the point is, and by the way the consumer confidence numbers came out last week, highest that they’ve been in the last 10 years. Dan: But what do you attribute that to? In terms of make the connection to Trump’s policy agenda. Stephen: Okay, that’s a great question Dan, well done, so couple of things, first of all there is, I think the major thing that Trump has done to improve the economy, I don’t think there’s any question about this, Trump has basically brought a screeching halt to regulations, regulatory state is basically come to a halt under Trump, partly because they have this policy, for very new regulation you have to get rid of two, but also the people he’s put in charge of these regulatory bodies, like the EPA, are fantastic, they are pro-growth, pro-business, you know Larry Kudlow, he’s one of my best friends, one of the best economists in the country, Larry said this really well, what happened with the election of Donald Trump was the war on business in Washington was over, and that’s true, the war on business is over, that’s a big deal, I think it’s one of the reasons we’re seeing a real revival in economy, now if we get this tax cut done, we’re going to get 4-5 percent growth. Amy: But we couldn’t get over 3 Dan… Dan: Well I’ll tell you what, here’s just since I set you up, I set you up nicely and I wanted to get this, competitive enterprise institute study, that counts the number of pages added to the federal register, federal regulations, the annualised pace right now, through the end of July, was 61,330 pages, which is down from nearly 97,000 pages in 2016 under Obama, it’s the lowest figure since the 1970s, this year we’ll see the biggest decline in regulatory actions since the federal register was introduced in 1936, that is significant, it’s under reported, somebody should tell Trump so he talks about it. Stephen: Well, you’re exactly right, this is a big deal, with respect to the… and let me give you an example of where the rubber really hits the road, a year ago Hilary Clinton was running around the country telling people if they elected here, every coal mine in America would lose their jobs, that was supposed to be a reason they should vote for her, instead, and all the liberals said well the coal industry is dead, it’s never coming back because we’re all going to use solar power, the production of coal under Trump is up 15% so far this year, 15%, coal employment is up, one of the biggest increases in employment in these labour statistics has been mining and drilling, you think that’s just a coincidence? This is a pro-development president, now look we have to get the tax cut done, if we don’t get this done, this is the warning sign for those who are investors, don’t get the tax cut done, I really worry that you’re not going to see, I think you might see a selloff in stocks, I think Wall Street will get very nervous about the Republicans confidence and they’ll see a potential big sell off in stocks, so I’m very nervous about that, that’s why you got to get a tax cut done, I’m devoting every ounce of my energy, every ounce of my energy to getting these business tax rates down. Amy: And when do you think they’ll be sell off in the stock market? Stephen: Well, look… Amy: Well people should take a look at their… Stephen: Look, hold on, there’s really two views on this, one view is that Wall Street is just so disgusted with the Republicans right now they’re not counting on Republicans to do anything and anything they do is just a bonus, that’s one view, the other view is that they’ve already priced in, into the stock values the tax cut, if it’s the latter that’s true, then if they don’t get the tax cut done, that certainly means that there’s going to be a selloff in stocks, if the tax cut doesn’t happen, so that’s where we are right now, I wish Trump would talk amore about the economy, frankly, I wish the media would talk about the economy, when is the last time anybody in the media has covered this stuff? Dan: Well, and how does the apparently frayed relationship between McConnell and Trump, as recounted in the New York Times, play into all this? Particularly tax reform. Stephen: Its bad, its bad, you can’t have the Senate majority leader sniping with the President, they need each other, this is the thing, Republicans have to hang together here, or they hang separately, and for them to be sniping each other like this is highly unproductive, but we will see, it’s a really tough environment right now, out there, I have to say I am so disgusted, I’ve never in my life been more disgusted with the left in America as I am today, I am so nervous about what is happening, I pray that I’m wrong about this, but I think we’re going to see violence by the left, I was on CNN last week saying some nice things about Robert E Lee and… Dan: The sports announcer? Stephen: I was literally getting death threats from people. Amy: Really? Oh Gosh. Stephen: The left has become unhinged, and now they have this sense of moral superiority, I pray that I’m wrong, but I worry about more shootings, like what happened to Steve Scalise, this would be a tragedy, but look, I went to a lot of the Trump rallies, I would say 75% of the time, not every time, but 75%, 3 out of 4 times, when there was violence, the violence was perpetrated by people on the left. Amy: Right, and last night, more people that were arrested for throwing rocks and bottles at police officers were anti-Trump protesters. Stephen: Right, and so I hope I’m wrong, look, Trump certainly bears the responsibility, he has to figure out how you bring the country together, not how you divide the country, and that concerns me as well, and look this is a scary situation in America today, because the left is on this wacko crusade right now. Dan: Alright, Steve Moore, Wall Street Journal columnist, Heritage Foundation economist, if you like Robert E Lee’s play by play, don’t watch the UVA game this week. Stephen: I’m not, look I move to Chicago to Virginia, I’m a Virginian now. I spent some time at Washington League College, and by the way they’re going to change the name of that within about a year. Dan: Yeah, there was a New York Times op-ed about it, my schools named about Robert E Lee, what do I do? Stephen: Exactly, I didn’t know it was named Robert E Lee, I didn’t know it was named after Robert E Lee when I attended that school, gee whiz. Dan: Thanks for joining us Steve, appreciate it. Stephen: See you guys, bye. Amy: And he joined us on our turnkey dot pro answer line.

   

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