Dan Proft: Good morning Dan and Amy, Trump was in Phoenix yesterday preaching to the faithful, talked a little bit of economics, amid a number of other topics he tackled, restated what he considers one of his accomplishments, which is the creation of 1 million new jobs as of last evening, and the question though is, minutia staying on and trying to right the ship after a rocky week at sea last week, are we going to see policy, the signature cornerstone policy accomplishments that make way for real growth, not just at the macro level, but in terms of real wage growth too, in addition to the couple percentage point we’ve seen today and a real turn around for this country and for middle income families, for more of the answer to that question, we’re pleased to be joined again by Heritage Foundation economist, Wall Street Journal columnist, Senior Economist for CNN, Steve Moore, Steve thanks for being with us again, appreciate it.
Stephen Moore: Hi Dan, good morning.
Dan: Morning, so we getting tax reform or what?
Stephen: Say again.
Dan: Are we getting tax reform or what?
Amy Jacobson: Yeah, answer the question. Don’t stall.
Stephen: That’s a tough one my friend, look I do think that we will get a tax reform bill, but boy there sure doing it the hard way and this is a very tough time for the Republicans they just don’t seem to have their act together, let me step back a minute, the economy right now, this is something that because of the story about Charlottesville and Bannon and Comey and Russia and all the other things that are going on, nobody is talking about what’s happening with the economy, so I’m going to tell you what happening with the economy, it is absolutely booming, we haven’t see anything like this since the late 1990s, so you know that every week or so the Atlanta Federal Reserve bank estimates what’s the GDP growth rate will be based on the weekly data that comes in, you want to take a wild guess at what there latest forecast is for the third quarter growth rate for the Western economy? Now we’re about 7 weeks in to the third quarter so we’re a little bit over half way through the third quarter, guess what there estimate right now is for the third quarter.
Dan: Amy’s the one…
Amy: No, no, no.
Dan: Amy’s the one here who makes the guesses about GDP growth, she’s our GDP growth projector.
Stephen: Take a guess, Amy before you…
Stephen: What she say?
Dan: Come on.
Stephen: Hold on just one second, before you guess this Amy, I’ll give you a couple of numbers so you can make an assessment here…
Dan: We lost Steve Moore, okay, we’re going to have Steve Moore back, we had a little technical difficulty, I think I accidentally hung up on him actually, that was the technical difficulty.
Amy: Did you? Oh, so it was your fault.
Dan: Yeah, it happens, here’s the thing I wanted to get to Steve Moore, he’ll be right back.
Amy: He will be.
Dan: After you make your prediction, 6.7%, this is like price is right, you cannot over bid, you don’t win the showcase showdown if you’re over, so ratchet it down a little bit.
Dan: Be optimistic.
Amy: Well that’s optimistic.
Dan: Don’t get over 3.
Amy: I said 2.6!
Dan: Alright, I’m just saying, I’m glad we can confer before Steve Moore, Steve Moore is back.
Amy: I’ve got my answer for him. Steve, I have my answer.
Dan: Don’t tell him we talked, Steve sorry about that.
Amy: I have my answer for you.
Stephen: You are wrong! Dan do you want to take a stab at this?
Dan: And if I get within 1 tenth of a point, do I win both showcase showdown?
Amy: you get what’s behind…
Amy: You said? Ohhhhhh…
Stephen: 3.8%, that’s an amazing number, that… can you imagine if Barack Obama had been quoted 3.8% growth, he’d have done cart wheels down Pennsylvania Avenue, 3.8%, a lot of these economists, these liberal economists are saying, Trump can’t get 3% how in the world is he, he’s high in the sky, he’s making up the numbers, 3% is impossible, going on and on and on about this, he’s at 3.8% so far, now look this is only based on 7 weeks, but the point is, and by the way the consumer confidence numbers came out last week, highest that they’ve been in the last 10 years.
Dan: But what do you attribute that to? In terms of make the connection to Trump’s policy agenda.
Stephen: Okay, that’s a great question Dan, well done, so couple of things, first of all there is, I think the major thing that Trump has done to improve the economy, I don’t think there’s any question about this, Trump has basically brought a screeching halt to regulations, regulatory state is basically come to a halt under Trump, partly because they have this policy, for very new regulation you have to get rid of two, but also the people he’s put in charge of these regulatory bodies, like the EPA, are fantastic, they are pro-growth, pro-business, you know Larry Kudlow, he’s one of my best friends, one of the best economists in the country, Larry said this really well, what happened with the election of Donald Trump was the war on business in Washington was over, and that’s true, the war on business is over, that’s a big deal, I think it’s one of the reasons we’re seeing a real revival in economy, now if we get this tax cut done, we’re going to get 4-5 percent growth.
Amy: But we couldn’t get over 3 Dan…
Dan: Well I’ll tell you what, here’s just since I set you up, I set you up nicely and I wanted to get this, competitive enterprise institute study, that counts the number of pages added to the federal register, federal regulations, the annualised pace right now, through the end of July, was 61,330 pages, which is down from nearly 97,000 pages in 2016 under Obama, it’s the lowest figure since the 1970s, this year we’ll see the biggest decline in regulatory actions since the federal register was introduced in 1936, that is significant, it’s under reported, somebody should tell Trump so he talks about it.
Stephen: Well, you’re exactly right, this is a big deal, with respect to the… and let me give you an example of where the rubber really hits the road, a year ago Hilary Clinton was running around the country telling people if they elected here, every coal mine in America would lose their jobs, that was supposed to be a reason they should vote for her, instead, and all the liberals said well the coal industry is dead, it’s never coming back because we’re all going to use solar power, the production of coal under Trump is up 15% so far this year, 15%, coal employment is up, one of the biggest increases in employment in these labour statistics has been mining and drilling, you think that’s just a coincidence? This is a pro-development president, now look we have to get the tax cut done, if we don’t get this done, this is the warning sign for those who are investors, don’t get the tax cut done, I really worry that you’re not going to see, I think you might see a selloff in stocks, I think Wall Street will get very nervous about the Republicans confidence and they’ll see a potential big sell off in stocks, so I’m very nervous about that, that’s why you got to get a tax cut done, I’m devoting every ounce of my energy, every ounce of my energy to getting these business tax rates down.
Amy: And when do you think they’ll be sell off in the stock market?
Stephen: Well, look…
Amy: Well people should take a look at their…
Stephen: Look, hold on, there’s really two views on this, one view is that Wall Street is just so disgusted with the Republicans right now they’re not counting on Republicans to do anything and anything they do is just a bonus, that’s one view, the other view is that they’ve already priced in, into the stock values the tax cut, if it’s the latter that’s true, then if they don’t get the tax cut done, that certainly means that there’s going to be a selloff in stocks, if the tax cut doesn’t happen, so that’s where we are right now, I wish Trump would talk amore about the economy, frankly, I wish the media would talk about the economy, when is the last time anybody in the media has covered this stuff?
Dan: Well, and how does the apparently frayed relationship between McConnell and Trump, as recounted in the New York Times, play into all this? Particularly tax reform.
Stephen: Its bad, its bad, you can’t have the Senate majority leader sniping with the President, they need each other, this is the thing, Republicans have to hang together here, or they hang separately, and for them to be sniping each other like this is highly unproductive, but we will see, it’s a really tough environment right now, out there, I have to say I am so disgusted, I’ve never in my life been more disgusted with the left in America as I am today, I am so nervous about what is happening, I pray that I’m wrong about this, but I think we’re going to see violence by the left, I was on CNN last week saying some nice things about Robert E Lee and…
Dan: The sports announcer?
Stephen: I was literally getting death threats from people.
Amy: Really? Oh Gosh.
Stephen: The left has become unhinged, and now they have this sense of moral superiority, I pray that I’m wrong, but I worry about more shootings, like what happened to Steve Scalise, this would be a tragedy, but look, I went to a lot of the Trump rallies, I would say 75% of the time, not every time, but 75%, 3 out of 4 times, when there was violence, the violence was perpetrated by people on the left.
Amy: Right, and last night, more people that were arrested for throwing rocks and bottles at police officers were anti-Trump protesters.
Stephen: Right, and so I hope I’m wrong, look, Trump certainly bears the responsibility, he has to figure out how you bring the country together, not how you divide the country, and that concerns me as well, and look this is a scary situation in America today, because the left is on this wacko crusade right now.
Dan: Alright, Steve Moore, Wall Street Journal columnist, Heritage Foundation economist, if you like Robert E Lee’s play by play, don’t watch the UVA game this week.
Stephen: I’m not, look I move to Chicago to Virginia, I’m a Virginian now. I spent some time at Washington League College, and by the way they’re going to change the name of that within about a year.
Dan: Yeah, there was a New York Times op-ed about it, my schools named about Robert E Lee, what do I do?
Stephen: Exactly, I didn’t know it was named Robert E Lee, I didn’t know it was named after Robert E Lee when I attended that school, gee whiz.
Dan: Thanks for joining us Steve, appreciate it.
Stephen: See you guys, bye.
Amy: And he joined us on our turnkey dot pro answer line.